Public school enrollment in D.C. is estimated to grow by as many as 21,100 students by 2026-2027, and half of this growth likely to occur in middle and high school grades, according to a new D.C. Policy Center report.
The new stury, titled Will Children of Current Millennials Become Future Public School Students?: How D.C.’s Young Families May Shape Future Public School Enrollment, examines births and public school enrollment by cohort.
“Enrollment in D.C. traditional public and public charter schools grew by about 8,000 students (or 13 percent) in kindergarten through grade 12 from 2006-07 to 2016-17,” states the report. “Interestingly, the population aged 5 to 17 started to increase in 2012, and public school enrollment increased two years earlier. This could be the result of policy changes, such as more kindergarteners staying in public schools after access to free pre-kindergarten was expanded in 2008.”
The study has established that the growth of enrollment in D.C.’s public schools has two main drivers.
“First, there are higher numbers of school-age children: the population aged 5 to 17 grew by about 3,000 children (4 percent) over the same period,” the report explained. “Second, a higher percentage of school-age children are attending public schools: estimated public school attendance rates among that age group is up to 92 percent in 2016-17 from 85 percent in 2007-08.”
Increased number of children born to D.C. mothers stay in the city and later enroll in D.C.’s public schools after birth, especially in early and elementary grades, which according to the report, is also influencing the enrolment trends.
“Births are up by a thousand per year compared to 10 years ago. More families are staying in the city and choosing public schools for their children, especially in early grades,” the report concluded.